Every post, because of the ACC grant of rights all but closing the door on major expansion, will be about possibilities. The cupboards are not bare for the Big 12. There are still some potential candidates and low-hanging fruit that is ripe for the picking. BYU and Cincinnati are the first two schools that come to mind. A very close third is University of Central Florida. UCF has won the American Athletic Conference in their first year in the league and have won a Fiesta Bowl birth against Big 12 champion Baylor. UCF has a student body of over 50,000 students and is in Orlando, FL, which has a metro area of over 2 million people, a sizable market within themselves. Nonetheless, based on overall sports success, I have to get the slight edge to the Cincinnati Bearcats. Plus, Cincinnati would make a great travel partner for West Virginia. This is how the scenario will play out:
Step 1: Big 12 decides to expand and acquires BYU for #11. BYU will most likely decide to just have its football in the Big 12 while keeping their other sports in the West Coast Conference.
Step 2: Big 12 choose Cincinnati as #12 football school. It would be inane for the Big 12 not to have Cincinnati’s other sports including basketball. Cincinnati has been consistent in making it to the NCAA basketball tournament and that is the reason the they will have the advantage over UCF when it comes to expansion candidacy.
Step #3: Eleven is such an awkward number. There will be eleven all sports members which makes it hard for scheduling in conference. I think the best choice will be for the Big 12 to grab the University of Saint Louis. The Bilikens have been an excellent acquisition for the A-10 but with Butler gone and Saint Louis on a geographic island, Saint Louis would be an excellent fit for the Big 12′s Midwest footprint. This will also provide the Big 12 a way to get the state of Missouri back that it relinquished back it 2011 when Mizzou left for the SEC.
If this were to happen, the American Athletic Conference will be left with yet another void to fill. The AAC, by extension, the Big East, has been raided more than other conference for membership. This time, at least, the AAC will need to find only one more member and there are some options.
#1: UMass- UMass is located in Amherst, MA. They currently are members of the Mid-American Conference for football-only. Since joining the MAC as a football-only member, they have accumulated a dismal 2-22 record; certainly, a far cry from the 1998 FCS national championship season. It has been two years and the MAC may be on the verge of using their two-year trial clause and expelling UMass not only for their lack of success but the MAC has not been able to find a suitable geographic partner for them. Seems like whenever the MAC expands beyond its footprint, that team is raided. Another good reason is that they currently have 13 football members and that is certainly awkward for scheduling. Getting back down to 12 would be ideal. UMass would be great as a rival for Connecticut. They border each other and both have a strong Northeast culture. UMass has excellent academics and when crowds are too big for their home stadium in Amherst, they use Gillette Stadium in Foxborough for home games to accommodate larger crowds. There is one small problem: all other sports for UMass reside in the A-10 Conference and the American Athletic Conference is in dire need for baseball programs because Temple is cutting baseball, Tulsa and SMU do not have baseball and Navy is a football only member. UMass has baseball and it would be unwise to not at least try to make UMass an all-sports member because currently, UMass’ basketball team is ranked in the top-25 and has made it to the NCAA tournament numerous times including a 1996 Final Four appearance. This would cushion the blow for UConn being stuck in the American by giving them what would be a natural rival due to the fact that both schools recruit heavily in the same region. The AAC could divide up the schools into divisions of north and south.
North:
Connecticut
East Carolina
Massachusetts
Memphis
Navy
Temple
South:
Central Florida
Houston
SMU
South Florida
Tulane
Tulsa
#2. University of Southern Mississippi- The Golden Eagles parity, when it comes to recent football failures, is on par with UMass because the past two years, the Eagles have accumulated an anemic 1-23 record. USM was known as a football powerhouse in C-USA and went to a bowl for eighteen straight years. USM had the reputation as a giant killer that occasionally beat schools like Florida State and Alabama. No school ever liked having to play in the “Rock,” the home stadium of USM. This is the first time, in my generation that USM has performed so horridly on the field. This will not last for ever and this should not be scrutinized too much if you are the AAC. USM’s campus resides in Hattiesburg and a stone’s throw away from various major cities including New Orleans and Mobile. USM’s football squad has won five outright conference titles including most recently in 2011 when they beat the Houston Cougars, who came in undefeated and smelling a BCS birth.
If you are not persuaded by football, then other sports should whet the appetites of the executives in the AAC. The Golden Eagles basketball squad has a recent run with two straight winning seasons. In 2012, they made it to the NCAA tournament and it 2013, they had a good run in the NIT making it all the way to the third round. Another sport that has done well for itself is baseball. In 2009, USM won a super regional against Florida and made it to the College World Series. From top to bottom, USM has a strong commitment to athletics and the results speak for themselves.
#3: Rice. The Rice Owls have went to bowls two straight years and this year, they won their first C-USA championship, first conference championship since 1957. Their baseball squad has been consistent in making it to the tournament including a 2002 NCAA championship. Rice has excellent academics with the distinction of being an AAU member. Also, their campus resides in Houston. However, the AAC already has a school in that market with the University of Houston and this would be duplicating markets. Because of this, Rice would be excluded from any further discussion. If USM was selected, this is what the division would look like
West:
Houston
Memphis
SMU
Tulane
Tulsa
USM
East:
Connecticut
East Carolina
Navy
Temple
UCF
USF
In conclusion, putting aside my prejudice for USM, UMass would be the best choice for overall potential and markets. There are still moves still that can be made and If the Big 12 wises up, I think they would be good ones and there would be minor ripples. The MAC would not be hurt because they would have maintain their twelve core members; the A-10 would have 12 members with Davidson coming in in 2014; finally, the AAC would reload easily by acquiring UMass.
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